For the 21st consecutive year I’ll be RE+ the week of September 9-12 (RE+ used to be Solar Power International). Since I didn’t have time for a podcast this week, I thought a repeat of my 2024 predictions would be useful. With the benefit of hindsight I’m compiling my hits, walks and strikeouts for these predictions. Here’s a quick rundown:
1. EVs will be equipped with with integrated 240-volt generators (K)
Still only two vehicles promote this feature: the Ford Lightning and the Tesla Cybertruck. Attention automakers: WAKE UP AND SELL MORE EVs. A built-in inverter is less than a $300 part that will significantly increase the value of your vehicles. Plugging that big battery to support the appliances in the house can save customers thousands of dollars per year, with negligible effect on LFP battery lifetime.
2. Heat pump sales will surge by 25% (H)
Even though the IRA heat pump rebates have STILL not kicked in, heat pump sales are on a tear. With the $3,200 IRA tax credits for heat pumps there is no reason to wait for your existing AC or furnace to kick the bucket.
3. Fewer than half of the new clean energy manufacturing plants will be completed (H)
I’m not happy about getting this prediction right, but because of political uncertainty many companies are putting clean energy plant construction projects, such as solar cell and module factories, on hold. Hopefully these projects will quickly resume in 2025 when the political dust settles.
4. Utilities in other states will follow California’s lead to end Net Metering (H)
What starts in California (and Hawaii) often spreads from “west” to “east." The California Public Utilities Commission, with arm-in-arm cooperation of the Governor and state legislature, have systematically dismantled the rooftop solar and storage business for residential, commercial, and school customers. Utilities in other states will utilize this anti-solar playbook to leverage their monopoly and increase their profits.
5. Residential solar revenues in California will plunge by 50% (H)
Another bummer. Battery storage revenues in California have also declined significantly, but the battery “attachment rate” and therefore cost of a solar system has gone up because batteries are sold with almost every system.
6. A national-scale solar installation company will file for bankruptcy (H)
SunPower. They tried. They succeeded wildly. Then they failed. See the Requiem.
7. Tesla will claw its way into the U.S. inverter business (H)
SolarEdge and Enphase have had a lock on the inverter market for almost a decade. Then the building code Rapid Shutdown Requirements were relaxed and Tesla stepped in with an inexpensive product. Maybe not as safe and efficient as systems with module level power electronics, but Tesla's price point, features and brand are helping them gain significant market share.
8. Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) and Vehicle to Grid (V2G) will not gain traction (K)
I’m still skeptical, but I whiffed on this prediction. VPP and V2G pilot programs are rolling out around the country. Utilities are continuing to experiment, battery companies are participating, states are kicking in extra money, and the hype cycle continues. The financial benefits to consumers of these Customer Energy Resources (CERs, not DERs) are murky, and the leading VPP aggregator (Swell) recently closed their doors. Can someone explain to me the economics behind customers using their expensive battery systems in an inconvenient way for a pittance to support their not particularly well-liked utility generate even higher profits?
9. The residential battery system business will consolidate (BB)
There are about the same number of new battery companies entering the market as old ones departing. Market share is shifting, but it’s too soon to call it a full-scale consolidation.
10. It’s Game Over for fossil fuels (K)
With record fossil fuel production in the U.S. and record consumption around the world, I completely struck out on this prediction. Fossil fuel industry lobbying, COP gaslighting, impractical and false-hope technologies, and a fundamental inability to combine economics, thermodynamics and politics are leading to an inexorable charge towards 2C global warming.
I was never any good at baseball, but this year I managed to bat .667 with my predictions.
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Every week Barry hosts The Energy Show, a 30 minute informative talk show that covers a broad variety of energy related topics spanning technology, economics, policy, and politics that are shaping the future of how we generate and consume electricity, along with practical money-saving tips on ways to reduce your home and business energy consumption.
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